For months Google said the web was thriving. Then a line surfaced in a DOJ remedies filing: “the open web is already in rapid decline.” It wasn’t a keynote—it was a sentence in a legal memo. The economic stakes are enormous.
After pushback, Google narrowed the wording to “open-web display advertising.” Even so, its own numbers show collapse inside Google’s buying tools.
What the filing shows:
- Definition shift: Google clarified the line referred to open-web display advertising, not the entire open web.
- Share collapse: Within Google’s ecosystem, open-web display fell from 40%+ of AdWords display impressions (Jan 2019) to ~11% (Jan 2025).
- Remedy context: Google argues a breakup would accelerate the decline and harm publishers reliant on open-web display revenue.
Why this matters:
Billboard economy at risk: Search and feeds once funneled clicks to pages with display ads and affiliate links. If AI answers bypass the click, the funnel starves.
Downstream losses: Global digital ads = hundreds of billions; affiliate market = $20–37B; influencer market = $32B. Bypass routes drain these revenue streams first.
Revision does not equal reversal: Even with Google’s narrower phrasing, the 40%+ → 11% slide signals a structural change, not a rounding error.
Context & coverage:
- Early Sept 2025: Google files remedies memo in the DOJ ad-tech case (E.D. Va.).
- Industry watchers surface the “rapid decline” line; niche press covers it; wording later revised to open-web display advertising.
- Mainstream broadcasters largely silent despite the multi-billion-dollar implications.
What to do now:
- Harden direct trust channels: newsletters, podcasts, member communities.
- Publish for retrieval: structure content for AI summarization and RAG, not only SEO.
- Curate for signal: editorial and algorithmic curation to surface quality over volume.
- Bias guardrails: demand labeling for paid insertions in AI answers; push for auditable ranking signals.
- Creator alignment: partner where influence outweighs raw traffic; measure trust, not just impressions.